Beyond the Incentives

Beyond the Incentives:

What Happens to Commercial Solar When the Tax Credits End?

By Carport Structures Corporation

The Inflation Reduction Act created a golden window for commercial solar deployment, but that window is now closing. Under the newly enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act, federal tax credits for solar projects will expire unless construction begins by the end of 2026 and systems are placed in service by the end of 2027.

This change marks a turning point for the solar industry and for commercial clients considering solar carports as part of their long-term energy strategy.

So what happens when the federal incentives go away?

The answer depends on how the industry and the broader economy respond to something bigger: the return of structural energy demand.

A Tale of Two Outcomes

At Carport Structures Corporation, we see two credible futures taking shape. One is defined by contraction. The other by evolution.

The Contraction Risk

Without the 30 percent federal Investment Tax Credit, many mid-sized commercial projects will no longer pencil. The market has been built around that incentive for over a decade. It enabled complexity and supported a wide variety of business models, some of which were never built to last.

As that support disappears, we expect to see:

  • A rush of construction through 2026 and 2027

  • A wave of project cancellations in 2028

  • A thinning of the field, particularly among newer or over-leveraged developers

In this scenario, solar carports may be viewed as a discretionary spend, especially in markets without strong state incentives or onsite load needs. Financing becomes more challenging. Volume shrinks. Margins tighten. Many firms will pivot, consolidate, or exit altogether.

The Demand-Driven Future

But there is another, more powerful force at play: raw energy demand.

The U.S. grid is nearing its limits. Utilization is above 84 percent. The growth of AI, data centers, EV fleets, and reindustrialization is driving electricity demand faster than utilities can build centralized generation. Power prices are rising. Lead times for new capacity are measured in years.

In this environment, solar is no longer an optional add-on. It is one of the only technologies that can be deployed at scale, in months, where the demand actually is.

Solar carports offer a unique solution:

  • They use space that is already developed, such as parking lots, loading zones, and campuses

  • They reduce demand on the grid at the site level

  • They provide long-term price certainty without fuel risk

  • And in key states like New Jersey, New York, California, and Illinois, local incentives and policy mandates continue to support deployment beyond the federal ITC timeline

This is where the market is going. Not toward incentives, but toward infrastructure.

From Tax Product to Power Asset

The end of the ITC does not mean the end of solar.

It means a return to fundamentals. Projects will be built not because they are subsidized, but because they solve real problems: energy access, cost control, space optimization, and speed to deployment.

Solar carports, especially when paired with battery storage or EV infrastructure, are poised to become part of the backbone of the new distributed energy economy. But only for firms that can actually deliver.

At Carport Structures, we’re builders first. We design, fabricate, and deliver solar infrastructure that meets real-world energy needs, on time, on budget, and without shortcuts. We were here long before the ITC and will continue to deliver long after it.